Understanding Rwandan Agricultural Households’ Strategies to Deal with Prime Age Illness and Death: A Propensity Score Matching Approach

The increasing prevalence of HIV/AIDS in Rwanda – along with the devastating effects of the genocide of 1994 – means that many rural households face extreme stress. Since 90 percent of the population is engaged in agriculture, the consequences should be reflected in agricultural production. This research evaluates differences between households directly affected by HIV/AIDS and other illnesses resulting in premature adult death and households not affected by these events. In particular, strategies to deal with morbidity and mortality and differences in crop production outcomes are examined. Annual agricultural production data from 1999-2001, on a nationally representative sample of rural Rwandan households, are combined with recall information on reported strategies and household demographics – including morbidity and mortality. The main methodological approach uses propensity score matching to asses how affected households differ from comparable, but unaffected, households. Some of the expected shifts to roots and tubers and out of cash crops occur with affected households. With high population density and very small average agricultural holdings, Rwandan households appear to use labor replacement strategies rather than labor-saving technologies to deal with labor shortages. There is a worrisome tendency to shift away from crops that provide erosion control, so soil fertility issues will be increasingly relevant in this hilly country. Since the affected households ex post tend to be in the lower income groups, agricultural policy that can generate rural income growth with diversification of income sources will assist those households, while helping the general population of rural poor.